Tuesday, May 16, 2006

Why it is sometimes folly to try long range forecasting

OK, looking at the latest models, I may just shut up for at least a few days about the extended outlooks.

The new models are a lot different from their previous runs, they are very different than each other- I actually should not be surprised given the fairly wide spread in the ensembles recently. It still looks like no chasing until next week at the earliest, but beyond that it is becoming obvious that there is really no way to say right now what will transpire until there is a lot more agreement with all the myriad guidance...and that not be for a few days at the least.

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