Sunday, May 14, 2006

Still a gloomy chase outlook

Since my last post I was beginning to get a bit more optimistic about a pattern shift that would lead to some storm chase opportunities by the time I go out to the Plains on Saturday. However, the models and ensembles, which were trying to come to some sort of a consensus of a more favorable flow regime by the week of the 21st on, have now somewhat backed off on this a bit, especially the control run of the GFS. The ensembles are a bit more optimistic, but the individual members are showing a lot more spread, which means a lot more uncertainty. The bottom line- I think that the first week of my vacation is very iffy for chasing, maybe a few marginal situations at best, especially later in the period.
Also, it is becoming more and more likely that if and when the good chase pattern begins, it will be in the central and northern Plains from northern KS northward- I may be spending a lot of my time up in the Dakotas and Montana. Not that this is necessarily a bad thing, maybe the remoteness of this area will keep the number of chase hordes in check a bit.

For a much more technical explanation from long-range guru Ed Berry at NWS Dodge City on why it may be until the end of the month before the pattern shifts to a SW flow,
go here.

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