Wednesday, May 10, 2006

It keeps getting worse

There continues to be nary a shred or a dollop of hope regarding any chasing in the Plains over the next week, and very likely beyond that. The atmosphere is conspiring to give us the ultimate anti-chase pattern with a strong blocking pattern of deep upper-air low pressure gyres in the worst places imaginable- the eastern Pacific and the eastern half of NOAM. Every run of every operational model and virtually every GFS ensemble member is forecasting no change to this pattern all the way out until I begin my chase vacation on May 19 or 20, and even beyond that there are indications that this awful pattern may persist. I still have hope that because I am chasing until least the 11th of June that there will be a large pattern shift and maybe we can get some of this constipated blockiness to work for us, not against us. But that nasty voice in the back of my mind is saying that after all is said and done, we will all remember 2006 as the chase year that wasn't. I hope that I can eat crow on that statement...

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