Thursday, May 18, 2006

Well, maybe.

I should have known better than to get too excited about that one run of the GFS- even if it was supported by the ensembles. The death ridge is still forecast to break down, but how much and for how long is still the $64 question. The models are all over the place (what else is new), especially after 5 days out- one thing I do not really like is the persistent trend on most of the models for the establishment of a Gulf of Alaska upper vortex by later next week and beyond- this is not where you want to see an upper low, since that position tends to favor ridging over the western U.S.

In the meantime, however, it does seem likely that we will see at least one chase day
from Monday to Wednesday of next week- right now the latest run of the GFS favors Wednesday but that will probably shift again a few more times in the models. At least there continues to be some hope. As far as my personal plans go, these keep changing as much as the models. Right now I am leaning towards going directly from ATL to Lincoln NE on saturday and/or Sunday, and maybe hook up with someone from there- Jim Leonard is still uncertain with his plans.

This has been one of the more mentally exhausting seasons in a while- and I have not even left yet!

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