Sunday, May 21, 2006

The game is afoot!

I left Atlanta at about 12:20 PM today- I have decided to head to Oklahoma City and meet up with Jim Leonard- after that who knows right now, except to say that we will be heading in some northerly direction after that. I am currently in Russelville, AR along I-70 in between Little Rock and Ft. Smith. (The Super 8 here is very nice, reasonably priced with free breakfast and WiFi).

The models have still decided not to agree on a solution completely- the closed low now spinning off the CA coast is going to eject east and northeast over the next 72 hours, that is a given. However the speed and exact trajectory of this critical feature is still very much in question. Will it come out quickly enough for a chase day in eastern CO on Monday? Tuesday all along has looked like the best day this week, but the models still refuse to come to a final solution on exactly what the short wave will do when it comes into the long-wave mean ridge position- previous runs had it punching into the ridge with a more eastward trajectory- which would mean maybe northern KS to central NE would be the best place to be in Tuesday. But now the 00Z models are leaning (especially the GFS) towards a solution of the short weakening more and heading farther north, which would mean South Dakota and northern Nebraska would be the target. Of course if that turned out to be the case, then that might mean we would blow off the Monday chase if it seems too marginal, in order to minimize the driving.

Then after that it still looks like the northern Plains will be the place towards the Memorial Day weekend.

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