Back online...sort of

I am using Jim Leonard's computer- still no cord for mine, I will probably not get one until Thursday, so picture posts will have to wait until then.

I will also post more details on the past few days later, but the short version is:

On Saturday we saw some nice storms including an HP supercell near Bismarck, ND. Then on Sunday we encountered an incredible shelf cloud south of Chadron, NE. Yesterday was a bust near Pratt, KS- just a few marginal severe storms. Today we will be targeting the OK panhandle, SW Kansas and SE Colorado.

Computer problems

I may not be able to post for a while- my laptop power cord gave out, and this message is written on reserve power. We plan to chase today in northern ND. Hopefully I will be able to get a replacement for my cord in Bismarck later today, otherwise this will be my last entry for several days.

In Gillette, WY

It looks like the NE Wyoming/far western South Dakota area will be the chase area today. Moisture is limited but there is already good instability and pretty strong mid-level winds, so we do expect non-tornadic supercells with high bases later this afternoon. Hopefully one will provide some nice photographic opportunities.

Tomorrow's target still appears to be either NW South Dakota or north central North Dakota.

Far north chasing

We are currently in Scottsbluff, NE. We plan to chase SE Montana tomorrow and NC North Dakota near the Canadian border Saturday. The moisture will be the issue tomorrow, and the cap Saturday.

After that it looks like Sunday is iify along the cold front, but Monday and Tuesday have some potential in the Nebraska area.

We are off for some sightseeing today- probably at Devil's Tower in Wyoming.

Plans for the next few days

We have decided to not chase father east- there is a 5% tornado risk (according to SPC) off to the east from WI to MO. However, I feel the risk is marginal at best, as surface winds are going to be SW and a linear mode is more likely than supercells. So we have decided to just mosey our way west to western NE with Mike and Jay. There will be storms in western NE and vicinity by Friday, but upper winds may be too weak for tornadoes. The other play over the weekend could be in northern ND where the upper flow will be better, but the cap will be an issue. After that, who knows- none of the models are in agreement, so we will play it by ear.

Well, not so good after all

We stated the day in Holdrege, NE at the Super 8 (nice new motel with WiFi and breakfast, recommended). The data showed that the area we were in seemed to as good as any other, so we decided to stay there and continue to look at data. The desk person was nice enough to let us stay in the lobby after checkout. At about 3 PM a tornado watch was issued to the north of us up into South Dakota, but on radar the storms had already developed and looked to be messy and likely to form a line instead of remaining individual cells, so we opted to stay put. Later on we saw small cells start to develop in our area, so we hit the road south to intercept. The rest of the day was spent playing tag with various small storms in the area from south of Holdrege to south of Kearney. These storms were small and very high based, and had little if any lightning. Later on closer to sunset we did see a better storm on radar approaching Guide Rock- and a phone call to Mike Umscheid confirmed that this was a pretty good cell and even had some hail. We drove to near Nelson, NE to intercept, and viewed the cell to the west. It had a decent rain/hail core, and some sort-of-supercellular structure, but again had little if any lightning. Soon after this time we could see the tail end of the squall line farther NW, and knew our cell was doomed.

We had met up with Mike by then, and just drove east ahead of the squall line until we got to a point south of York, where we decided to go into town and eat. As we drove north the line approached and then overtook us- it had frequent lightning and winds to maybe 40-50 mph, but no hail. The anvil crawlers were fairly nice off to the east as we approached York, but not frequent enough to stop and photograph.

We ate with Mike and company in York, and then headed to Ken Dewey's house to crash for the night.

Photos here


More later on future plans.

Maybe a good day finally??

First off we did chase in far NW Kansas yesterday- the moisture and upper support were both lacking, so the storms were pretty junky. We did not even bother with the mess in eastern Colorado- we did watch a small dried up storm NW of Goodland or an hour or so, but then gave up and headed east to our current location in Holdrege, NE just north of the Kansas border. This area still looks to be in the ballpark for today's action, so we will hold here until at least noon so see what the latest data shows.

Headed to NE Colorado

Decided to chase today in NE Colorado- we will be leaving soon from DDC. SPC now has a 5% tornado risk in that area- the low-levels look good, but the upper support is lacking until after dark. So right now I expect some supercells, but the SPC risk seems overdone.

Then we will stay in SC Nebraska to set up for tomorrow- the target has now shifted north to perhaps the eastern sandhills from Hastings to Oneill.

More later, gotta run.

Getting into Dodge

Today was a set-up day. I first drove to Vince Miller's house in the northern part of Oklahoma City, where I met up with Jim Leonard and Steve Wachholder. I then transferred most of my gear into Jim's van, and left my vehicle in Vince's driveway (thanks Vince).

We then headed north and west to Dodge City- we decided to go there because it seemed to be a good midway point between a possible chase Monday in eastern Colorado and the Tuesday target of central Kansas. Also we wanted to meet up with Meso Mike Umscheid. After checking into the motel we went out to dinner with Mike- and just before we got our meal the power went out in that part of town due to a traffic accident that knocked over a utility pole. This actually turned out to be a blessing in disguise as we were virtually the last people in the establishment to get our meals- and Steve's steak was lost in the confusion and we ended up getting all of our meals free! Then we went to visit the DDC weather service, where Mike looked at some data for the upcoming days.

So we will reevaluate the situation tomorrow morning both for Monday and Tuesday- we may or may not chase tomorrow, but Tuesday looks like a no-brainer somewhere in central Kansas.

The game is afoot!

I left Atlanta at about 12:20 PM today- I have decided to head to Oklahoma City and meet up with Jim Leonard- after that who knows right now, except to say that we will be heading in some northerly direction after that. I am currently in Russelville, AR along I-70 in between Little Rock and Ft. Smith. (The Super 8 here is very nice, reasonably priced with free breakfast and WiFi).

The models have still decided not to agree on a solution completely- the closed low now spinning off the CA coast is going to eject east and northeast over the next 72 hours, that is a given. However the speed and exact trajectory of this critical feature is still very much in question. Will it come out quickly enough for a chase day in eastern CO on Monday? Tuesday all along has looked like the best day this week, but the models still refuse to come to a final solution on exactly what the short wave will do when it comes into the long-wave mean ridge position- previous runs had it punching into the ridge with a more eastward trajectory- which would mean maybe northern KS to central NE would be the best place to be in Tuesday. But now the 00Z models are leaning (especially the GFS) towards a solution of the short weakening more and heading farther north, which would mean South Dakota and northern Nebraska would be the target. Of course if that turned out to be the case, then that might mean we would blow off the Monday chase if it seems too marginal, in order to minimize the driving.

Then after that it still looks like the northern Plains will be the place towards the Memorial Day weekend.

Well, maybe.

I should have known better than to get too excited about that one run of the GFS- even if it was supported by the ensembles. The death ridge is still forecast to break down, but how much and for how long is still the $64 question. The models are all over the place (what else is new), especially after 5 days out- one thing I do not really like is the persistent trend on most of the models for the establishment of a Gulf of Alaska upper vortex by later next week and beyond- this is not where you want to see an upper low, since that position tends to favor ridging over the western U.S.

In the meantime, however, it does seem likely that we will see at least one chase day
from Monday to Wednesday of next week- right now the latest run of the GFS favors Wednesday but that will probably shift again a few more times in the models. At least there continues to be some hope. As far as my personal plans go, these keep changing as much as the models. Right now I am leaning towards going directly from ATL to Lincoln NE on saturday and/or Sunday, and maybe hook up with someone from there- Jim Leonard is still uncertain with his plans.

This has been one of the more mentally exhausting seasons in a while- and I have not even left yet!

Is it true???

The new models have undergone a radical change for the better- but it is still just a bit too early to dwell on any sort of specifics. I can probably state with at least some confidence that the nasty western "death ridge" that has shut down all chasing for a week now will break down or flatten by early next week. Any statement more specific than that will have to wait for at least several more model cycles- but I would be surprised if the period of the 22nd to the 25th does not yield at least one fruitful day in the northern half of "chase alley". Therefore it looks like my original plan of leaving Atlanta Saturday is still on, and right now I still plan to meet up with Jim Leonard in OKC on Sunday for an immediate departure north.

Why it is sometimes folly to try long range forecasting

OK, looking at the latest models, I may just shut up for at least a few days about the extended outlooks.

The new models are a lot different from their previous runs, they are very different than each other- I actually should not be surprised given the fairly wide spread in the ensembles recently. It still looks like no chasing until next week at the earliest, but beyond that it is becoming obvious that there is really no way to say right now what will transpire until there is a lot more agreement with all the myriad guidance...and that not be for a few days at the least.

Still a gloomy chase outlook

Since my last post I was beginning to get a bit more optimistic about a pattern shift that would lead to some storm chase opportunities by the time I go out to the Plains on Saturday. However, the models and ensembles, which were trying to come to some sort of a consensus of a more favorable flow regime by the week of the 21st on, have now somewhat backed off on this a bit, especially the control run of the GFS. The ensembles are a bit more optimistic, but the individual members are showing a lot more spread, which means a lot more uncertainty. The bottom line- I think that the first week of my vacation is very iffy for chasing, maybe a few marginal situations at best, especially later in the period.
Also, it is becoming more and more likely that if and when the good chase pattern begins, it will be in the central and northern Plains from northern KS northward- I may be spending a lot of my time up in the Dakotas and Montana. Not that this is necessarily a bad thing, maybe the remoteness of this area will keep the number of chase hordes in check a bit.

For a much more technical explanation from long-range guru Ed Berry at NWS Dodge City on why it may be until the end of the month before the pattern shifts to a SW flow,
go here.

It keeps getting worse

There continues to be nary a shred or a dollop of hope regarding any chasing in the Plains over the next week, and very likely beyond that. The atmosphere is conspiring to give us the ultimate anti-chase pattern with a strong blocking pattern of deep upper-air low pressure gyres in the worst places imaginable- the eastern Pacific and the eastern half of NOAM. Every run of every operational model and virtually every GFS ensemble member is forecasting no change to this pattern all the way out until I begin my chase vacation on May 19 or 20, and even beyond that there are indications that this awful pattern may persist. I still have hope that because I am chasing until least the 11th of June that there will be a large pattern shift and maybe we can get some of this constipated blockiness to work for us, not against us. But that nasty voice in the back of my mind is saying that after all is said and done, we will all remember 2006 as the chase year that wasn't. I hope that I can eat crow on that statement...

Some forecast musings for the next 1-2 weeks.

UPDATE
Well, I did not think it could get worse, but it did- the new ECMWF (European) model is now on board with a massive ridge over the West in the 6-10 day period. This matches very well with the new ensemble mean and virtually all the individual members. So it looks like there is at least an 80% chance of a complete Plains chasing shutdown from Wednesday for at least one week, and perhaps as long as ten days. I hope some miracle occurs and all the models are selling us so much snake oil, but I really doubt it.


Well, I have not seen the 00Z runs yet, hopefully this is just an aberration, but the ensemble members, which have been so chaotic over the past week for the mid-May time frame, have now become very close together all the way to about 180 hours. What they are showing is a persistent ridge in the West until about 240 hours. Then a trough begins to show up in the mean over the SW U.S. with SW flow in the High plains beyond the 10 day time frame. This western ridge scenario has been supported all along by many straight runs of the op ECMWF and other models. What this all means, at least IMHO, is that chasing opportunities in the long range will at first be confined to an occasional NW flow setup, but there will be multi-day stretches of no activity as cold fronts penetrate to the Gulf or as least to south TX. Then around the 17th or so there is a fair chance that a more favorable flow regime will slowly emerge. Remember last May- the last two weeks were fairly lean with only a few marginal days in the NW flow- but then we had the almost unbroken string of good days from June 2 to the 12th. So I am still hoping for a good late May and early June.


Looks like Monday and Tuesday will be interesting in the KS/OK area- if the NAM is close to being correct then OK could see a few tornadoes Tuesday.

Getting closer...

Less than two weeks now until the "official" chase season begins for me, and already I am having the usual irrational fears about the overall weather pattern. Once again I contemplated going out there this weekend- but once again it looks like this situation falls just short of my criteria for a short-notice chase. For me to drive all the way out to the Plains by myself the situation has to be better than marginal or even pretty good- it has to be a virtual slam-dunk for tornadoes and/or awesome supercells. This past Friday would have met the criteria, but of course it was during my work week. There were some incredible supercells- check out this and this near Patricia, TX
This storm did not come without a price however, evidently quite a few chasers had this happen to their vehicles- the second year in a row that storms somewhere close to Lubbock in early May did a number on a lot of chaser transportation.

Anyway, back to the upcoming chase- I am getting a bad feeling in the pit of my stomach about the overall weather pattern as it pertains to chasing in May- a lot of the operational forecast models and ensembles are showing a less than stellar pattern for producing the type of supercells I am after on a chase. This spring so far has been characterized by a lot of blockiness in the atmosphere- with persistent troughiness in the eastern U.S. What you really like to see is a SW flow aloft over the Plains, and right now there is little sign of that in the long-range models. Luckily my vacation is 12-13 days away, and it seems at least feasible and perhaps likely than this upcoming bad pattern will change to something more to my liking by then, but I cannot stop my fretting about it, even though my rational side tells me to chill out and just ignore the long range progs until my chase is less than a week away. But I know that will not happen.

Another change in chasing plans

Things keep evolving as far as the chase plans for 2006 go-

In my last post I said that Betsy would not be chasing with me this season. Well, now it looks like she WILL be chasing after all- but not until June. The plan now is for her to fly out to Oklahoma City on June 3rd, and chase with me until the 13th, since I have to be back at work on the 14th. This will work out really well overall, since I was originally going to have to drive by myself during that period- and I really want to avoid that in the future.

Today there is a tornado watch in IL and MO- and a few days ago I considered a short notice chase if the situation looked potent enough, but so far it has turned out to be only a marginally good situation in fair to poor chase territory.

The next two weekends need to be monitored for chasing- right now the longer range models are leaning againt any chase possibilities for this coming weekend.