stormnut

Shanghai part 2

2009-09-06T10:13:00.002-04:00

Shanghai Sept 5

2009-09-06T10:11:00.002-04:00

Li river part 2

2009-09-06T10:07:00.002-04:00

Li River Sept 4th

2009-09-06T10:01:00.002-04:00

Finally have access again in Korea

2009-09-06T09:27:00.003-04:00

The VPN software I used to get on Blogger and Facebook while in China did not work properly in Shanghai, so that is why no posts recently.

A lot has happened- After recovering from the 24 hour bug that laid me up Wednesday we were back out and about by Thursday. We took a Li river trip for a couple of hours (very nice but a lot less peaceful than the leisurely float on Tuesday), then flew back to Shanghai. Friday and Saturday we toured the city proper, Friday we wasted a few hours trying to find a particular shop and went to an amusement park that turned out to be closed so much of the day was a bit frustrating. Saturday was a lot more fruitful, went shopping in a really neat little area with a lot of small stores in narrow alleyways, visited a Confucian temple and ended the day going up in the world's third tallest building, the World Financial Center (which we dubbed the Big Can Opener).

Now in Seoul with the European Coaster Club ready for our amusement park tour of South Korea.

Photos to follow in the next few posts.

Our bike/raft trip Sep 1

2009-09-02T20:52:00.001-04:00

Well, after this great trip day before yesterday I got the 24 hour bug from the food, and yesterday was spent just resting at te hotel. Today I am much better, we will do some more river stuff before the flight back to Shanghai this evening.

Pics from the 1st:

More Yangshuo photos

2009-08-31T21:33:00.002-04:00

In Yangshuo

2009-08-31T21:04:00.001-04:00

Sorry for the lack of posts, but internet access has been dicey. We have done a lot, went to Happy Valley Amusement park near Shanghai. We are now in Yangshuo, amid a sea of Karst (limestone) pinnacles. We are staying at the Mountain Retreat, a really nice hotel on the river. Yesterday we hiked up to the top of Moon Hill, a cool natural arch.

Here are pics from yesterday:

Photos continued

2009-08-26T21:02:00.002-04:00

Had to break this into two, there is a size limit per post.

Photos from Beijing

2009-08-26T20:55:00.003-04:00

Some pics from The Temple of Heaven, The Great Wall, the Summer Palace, and the Olympic Stadium. The weather yesterday afternoon turned nice and sunny with minimal smog, but the clouds and haze returned today.

Technical difficulties

2009-08-26T10:52:00.002-04:00

A computer issue with a corrupted IPhoto library has forced me to re-process all of my photos from this trip, so all but a handful of pictures will have to wait until Friday night at the soonest.

Today was a great day, We got to the Wall early and beat the crowds, but it was still hazy. Took an alpine slide back down the mountain which was an unexpected treat. Had a great lunch of spicy mushrooms and fresh trout from the local river. Next was the Summer Palace- the sun appeared finally behind a cold front and a lot of the smog cleared out, making for some great photography.

We then went to the Olympic site and the Bird's nest, very impressive. Finally we had a Bejing (Peking) Duck dinner- quite tasty.

We hired an English-speaking driver for the day, he was extremely helpful and friendly.

Tomorrow the Forbidden City, a brewpub and then our overnight train to Shanghai.

Day 2

2009-08-25T09:46:00.002-04:00

Was spent the day going to the Temple of Heaven complex and an amusement park. I am very tired, so longer posts and more pics will have to wait. Tomorrow we go to the Great Wall, the Summer palace and the Olympics site, then a Peking Duck dinner.

Time for bed,

First day in Beijing

2009-08-24T08:07:00.004-04:00

A long but great day, We walked to Tiananmen Square, thought about visiting Mao's tomb but it was closed Mondays. Took a subway to the Lama Temple and also went to the nearby
Confucius Temple. Both were gorgeous. Then ate at a nearby restaurant which had good Dim Sum, especially the Sichuan Dumplings. Went to the night market, vendors on the street selling all sorts of very exotic foods on skewers- bugs larvae, scorpions, penises of various animals, sheep intestines etc. This did not really gross me out but some of the smells of this stuff cooking was disgusting to say the least.

Got our train tickets for Shanghai- we will be in an overnight sleeping compartment (we leave here Thursday).

Photos here

The software works!

2009-08-23T12:13:00.001-04:00

Will be able to post- we are at the hotel in Beijing, very nice. Too tired now, will post more in the coming days.

We made it, at least partway

2009-08-23T05:21:00.004-04:00

Arrived without incident in Toyko, Marlon is now here also also after 24 hours in NW Airlines/Delta hell after his flight was canceled. This may be the last entry unless I am successful in circumventing the blocking software in China.

No blogging in China, thanks to those damn Commies?

2009-08-20T16:04:00.003-04:00

I just read that China blocks Blogger - but I downloaded some VPN software, so we will see if that works. If not, no posts (except maybe in Tokyo during our layover) until we get to Korea on the 6th of September. I am keeping my fingers crossed though.

The return of the blog!

2009-08-18T13:32:00.003-04:00

I got very lazy and as you can see I have not posted anything on this blog for a long time. However, we are about to embark on an epic trip to China and Korea and for my friends that do not have Facebook (and for those who do as well) I will post some thoughts and pics here. We leave for the looong flight Saturday afternoon.

For a taste, here is a photo of one place we will be visiting:

More later!

Matt

Back chasing!

2007-04-26T12:15:00.000-04:00

Well, here I am again after the long winter's sleep....

Last week I began to notice on the long-range models that the pattern for the period from April 21st to the 24th might be promising for chasing. Therefore I arranged to have an extra day off from work in order to have 4 days to chase. However, I did not commit to going out until I found some chase partners- and by the time I decided to fly out Sunday the airfare to OKC had risen to $700- ouch! I still thought it looked good enough, so I bit the bullet and bought the ticket.

The person that was kind enough to let me tag along was Charles Edwards of Cloud 9 Tours- so after being picked up at the airport on Sunday by Vince Miller, (thanks Vince for the ride and the lodgings), I was ready to go Monday. (I wish I had come out Saturday when there was a mini-outbreak of tornadoes).

The target was the Texas Panhandle- but there was a large moderate risk all the way north into Kansas. We headed west on I-40 to Shamrock (the crew was myself, Charles, his wife and dog, Rocky Rascovich, Mike Theiss from Florida and his friend Brad).

After arriving at a Wi-Fi spot, we ran into a decent chaser convergence including Gene Rhoden, RJ Evans. Bobby Prentice and Hank Baker. Jim Leonard called from FL and suggested SW Kansas as a target, but after looking at data we decided to basically stay put.

Big Mistake. The SW Kansas area was the place to be- only one storm of note formed in the Panhandle- a pretty but rather shriveled up small LP west and SW of Pampa, while a cell near Protection in SW Kansas produced multiple very nice tornadoes.

OK, now it was on to Tuesday. We stayed overnight in Woodward, OK, thinking anywhere from Kansas to north TX could be productive. However, the next morning at around noon a large glob of storms formed rapidly from central OK all the way into TX- it looked way too messy on radar to fiddle with. so we made the decision to go into Kansas, where the data showed a stationary dryline and some sunshine to help things percolate.

We eventually headed towards Hutchison, and a small line of storms formed to the west. After getting west of town, we intercepted several cells all bunched together, but they were all interfering with one another, and despite one tornado warned storm with a weak wall cloud, it did not look promising. So we decided to drop south to look at the "tail-end Charlie" before calling it a chase. The storm began to look a bit better on radar as we approached the town of Nickerson- and suddenly a tornado warning was issued because of a spotted funnel cloud. Sure enough, a couple of minutes later we could see the small skinny funnel halfway to the ground to the SW. We entered Nickerson, and our collective jaws dropped when we saw what the structure of the storm looked like- it was a gorgeous striated narrow but tall barrel!

The next move was to find a clearing in the trees west of town- and this was accomplished in short order in a mile or two. By this time the storm was absolutely incredible, and we jumped out of the vehicles cameras blazing away. For the next 20 minutes we were regaled with the spectacle of awesome storm structure and several brief tornado touchdowns from the same rotating area-I took numerous photos and a bit of video.

When the storm got too close, we blasted back through town, but looking behind us it appeared as if the storm was losing its shape. Sure enough, after a few miles we stopped again, and the cell had become more strung out- so as the sun set we snapped a few more pics and headed into Wichita for a celebration dinner.

My one year tornado drought had ended, and I flew home happy on Wednesday, despite a 12 hour ordeal of delayed flights because of the very storm system that had provided the bounty the day prior- Ma Nature's small measure of revenge, I suppose.

Pics are here

Hurrah, a real storm!

2006-06-11T01:37:00.000-04:00

Finally, a good supercell. We began the day in Lincoln at Ken Dewey's house. I realized that we would have to get into the target early, because of the potential of storms becoming quickly outflow dominant due to the problem that has plagued us all season, an extreme lack of moisture.

Therefore we blasted west early on met up with Jim L and crew in GRI, and arrived in Ogalalla about 2 PM MDT, where John and Beth Moore joined the caravan.. We hooked into some wifi to check data- and discovered that there was a good supercell near Scottsbluff. As we got on the road, the radar showed that the first storm had a new cell developing on its east side, so we drove north of Oshkosh on the road to the Crescent Lake National Wildlife Refuge to intercept. About 10 miles north of town a nicely structured but high based storm came into view. While we were still driving we viewed a nice laminar funnel that looked promising, but it croaked by the time we found a good viewing spot. After this point the storm never looked close to tornadoing, but as we watched it develop over the open prairies it became quite a sight. After a half hour or so, it began to approach too closely, so we drove south and east to keep out in front of the cell for the next couple of hours, stopping periodically to view the nice structure and numerous pretty decent gustnadoes. We continued to stay ahead of the storm along I-80 to a point near Sutherland where the HP/shelf structure became very impressive again. However, after a few minutes the storm went downhill fast, so we called it a chase and went back to our motel in OGA.

This was by far our best chase day this season..an extremely enjoyable second to last day of the vacation.
Photos here

The agony and the ecstasy

2006-06-10T08:58:00.000-04:00

Well, I finally have reliable internet access- so am able to post again.

What a last several days- from the high of seeing Grand Teton and Yellowstone national parks to the low of completely messing up two chase days where we could have seen the best supercell structure of the trips. First the highs: Yellowstone and the Grand Tetons were awesome- we spent half the day Wednesday photographing the still-snowcovered Grand Tetons, then made our way to Yellowstone, where we were fortunate enough to see Grand Geyser erupt- it is the tallest (mostly) predictable geyser in the world- much better than Old Faithful, which was actually somewhat disappointing. We then toured a lot of the other thermal areas until dark, and made our way to the night's lodgings at the Mammoth Hot Springs Lodge.

The next morning we got up early, toured the Mammoth Hot Springs (not as impressive as in years past, a lot of the bigger springs are not flowing right now).

Then we did a quick tour of the Grand Canyon of the Yellowstone area (the falls were very impressive due to the high water levels in the rivers).

Photos here

OK, those are the highlights- on to the comedy of errors/blunders that have characterized the last two days.
We rightly decided to head east from the northern section of the park to try and catch some storms in southern Montana. However, as we wended our way from Cody east into the Bighorn mountains to a position north of Sheridan, we continued to have limited cell phone coverage and therefore limited internet access. So when we drove up the interstate to southern Montana, we did not realize the real weather situation in that region- which was in reality very well set up for supercells. As we approached the Little Big Horn area from the south, the thunderstorms in that area looked very junky and outflow dominant from our vantage point. So I made the fatal decision to blow off the storms and head south. BAD mistake. As it turned out, a massive supercell developed not 30 miles from where we turned around, and the photos from chasers that in the area show that this storm was the best of the latter part of the season, structure-wise. DOH!

OK, that was not very good, but there is always tomorrow, right? Yes, always another opportunity to mess up badly, which we did yet again. We should have paid more attention to the possibility of more good storms back in the higher terrain of the western NE/eastern WY area, but NOOOO, we were suckered way to the east into SE South Dakota and eventually far NW Iowa, where we were rewarded by a cluster of crappy high based junk, not anywhere close to being worth the time, effort and money involved. I did get a couple of very nice rainbow shots. The really kick in the a#$ was that yet once again, the smart chasers that decided to stay out west were rewarded with two really great supercells, one in eastern WY, another in Cherry county, NE. I should have realized that this season, due to the extreme lack of moisture, the only real play is to stay in higher terrain, where moisture is maximized. Therefore for what is most likely our last chance before heading home, we will attempt to get at least ONE good supercell in western Nebraska today, before calling it a (crappy) season.

Yellowstone, here we come

2006-06-07T00:33:00.000-04:00

Currently in Dubois, WY, in the Wind River valley SE of the Grand Tetons and Yellowstone. I have decided that the chance of a really good supercell or a tornado is low tomorrow, so we will spend the day in the national parks. After that I will evaluate the situation for possible chasing up here in WY/SD/NE/MT Thursday and Friday. Then it looks like the last two days of our vacation could be pretty good for chasing Saturday and Sunday.

Today we went to Pawnee Buttes in NE Colorado, and then drove all the way here to Dubois. I will post pics in a few days of our sightseeing portion of the vacation.

Finally, a real supercell

2006-06-06T09:40:00.000-04:00

Well, we finally had a pretty decent chase yesterday- we could have seen perhaps the best supercell of the day right near where we started out in McCook, as Jim Leonard and a few others saw a very nice storm in Chase county, NE later in the afternoon that almost produced a tornado, and had some spectacular mammatus at sunset. Still, I am not displeased with what we saw. We had been conversing with Mike Umscheid on the cell phone earlier, and he was convinced that eastern Colorado was the best place to be, and after looking at the data, I agreed. So we took off after a cell that had already developed near Ft Morgan, CO. As we approached Yuma, we could see the original cell to the north, and a new storm to the west near Otis. The radar showed that the southernmost storm was the storm to go after, and visually it looked like it was becoming a supercell. So we dropped south, as the storm was moving basically due south to the west of us. From then on we just stayed due west of the storm all the way down to I-70 near Flagler, where a new LPish updraft formed west of town. We followed this new storm down to near Kit Carson, where we decided to call it a chase.

The storms were not jaw-dropping structure wise, but given the extreme dearth of any real supercells for me this season, it was a very satisfying chase.

We did have incident at the motel this morning in Brush, CO. I stupidly left my CRV unlocked during the night, and a thief decided to do some ransacking of vehicles in the parking lot- he got our XM satellite radio, and a toolbox from the car next to us. No really big deal, but I will have to buy a new radio (not too expensive, I had the cheapest model).

06-06-06 ... it figures.

Photos from the chase here

The best day of the trip tomorrow?

2006-06-04T23:02:00.001-04:00

We are in McCook, NE for the night. We spent the day sightseeing in NE Colorado- went to the Beecher Island battleground north of Burlington and Bonny State park in the same area. We thought that there might be a slight chance of some thunderstorms in western KS, but the strong cap held and we gave up at about 5 PM and headed to McCook to set up for tomorrow. BTW, the Taste of Texas BBQ restaurant in McCook is highly recommended- probably the best food of my vacation so far. Do not miss the home made pies.

Tomorrow looks like perhaps the best chance for legitimate supercells and perhaps even tornadoes on this trip so far- still not the ideal situation as the moisture is still not up to par, but other factors look pretty good in central Nebraska. Then it is back out west for some sightseeing as the Tuesday-Thursday period looks to be dominated by the large upper ridge over the Rockies. We may try to get to Yellowstone for Wednesday and Thursday. After that perhaps more chasing will be in the cards for the last few days of the vacation- we shall see.

The last hurrah begins

2006-06-04T11:04:00.000-04:00

Sitting in Burlington, Co after a semi-bust in western KS. After picking Betsy up at the airport we decided to head NW to set up for possible chasing Sunday and Monday. I knew that there was a chance of some severe storms in western KS on the way, but supercells were a long shot. Sure enough a few cells erupted south of Goodland, KS at about 4 PM, but the extreme lack of moisture that has plagued this season so far resulted in very high based storms that were marginally pretty for a while- I did get a few decent photos, but nothing all that fantastic. We blew off these storms early and headed to Burlington for the night. There we got an unexpected bonus- we got to ride one of the most unique hand-carved wooden carousels in the country- built in 1905, PTC # 6 is truly a national treasure and is a National Historic Landmark. We had wanted to ride/see this for years, but the hours are limited in the spring/summer, and this was the first time it was open while we were in this area.

Photos here

Today looks like a down day, but tomorrow may be a chance for chasing in the area from central NE to central SD.

Chase vacation part 2 to begin....maybe?

2006-06-02T16:39:00.000-04:00

Traveled back to OKC yesterday, Jim is now going to pick up his next tour group tomorrow, and I pick up Betsy.

I have finally posted pics from the chases of the 6 day period from May 26 to May 31st. They are
here
here
here
here
here
here

The weather situation still looks very marginal for really good supercells and especially tornadoes for the last 10 days of my vacation, as the long-wave pattern is still not cooperating at all. However, we may still pull a rabbit out of a hat up in the northern plains beginning Sunday, stranger things have happened.

Back online...sort of

2006-05-30T10:10:00.000-04:00

I am using Jim Leonard's computer- still no cord for mine, I will probably not get one until Thursday, so picture posts will have to wait until then.

I will also post more details on the past few days later, but the short version is:

On Saturday we saw some nice storms including an HP supercell near Bismarck, ND. Then on Sunday we encountered an incredible shelf cloud south of Chadron, NE. Yesterday was a bust near Pratt, KS- just a few marginal severe storms. Today we will be targeting the OK panhandle, SW Kansas and SE Colorado.

Computer problems

2006-05-27T08:58:00.000-04:00

I may not be able to post for a while- my laptop power cord gave out, and this message is written on reserve power. We plan to chase today in northern ND. Hopefully I will be able to get a replacement for my cord in Bismarck later today, otherwise this will be my last entry for several days.

In Gillette, WY

2006-05-26T14:44:00.000-04:00

It looks like the NE Wyoming/far western South Dakota area will be the chase area today. Moisture is limited but there is already good instability and pretty strong mid-level winds, so we do expect non-tornadic supercells with high bases later this afternoon. Hopefully one will provide some nice photographic opportunities.

Tomorrow's target still appears to be either NW South Dakota or north central North Dakota.

Far north chasing

2006-05-25T12:40:00.000-04:00

We are currently in Scottsbluff, NE. We plan to chase SE Montana tomorrow and NC North Dakota near the Canadian border Saturday. The moisture will be the issue tomorrow, and the cap Saturday.

After that it looks like Sunday is iify along the cold front, but Monday and Tuesday have some potential in the Nebraska area.

We are off for some sightseeing today- probably at Devil's Tower in Wyoming.

Plans for the next few days

2006-05-24T12:00:00.000-04:00

We have decided to not chase father east- there is a 5% tornado risk (according to SPC) off to the east from WI to MO. However, I feel the risk is marginal at best, as surface winds are going to be SW and a linear mode is more likely than supercells. So we have decided to just mosey our way west to western NE with Mike and Jay. There will be storms in western NE and vicinity by Friday, but upper winds may be too weak for tornadoes. The other play over the weekend could be in northern ND where the upper flow will be better, but the cap will be an issue. After that, who knows- none of the models are in agreement, so we will play it by ear.

Well, not so good after all

2006-05-24T09:59:00.000-04:00

We stated the day in Holdrege, NE at the Super 8 (nice new motel with WiFi and breakfast, recommended). The data showed that the area we were in seemed to as good as any other, so we decided to stay there and continue to look at data. The desk person was nice enough to let us stay in the lobby after checkout. At about 3 PM a tornado watch was issued to the north of us up into South Dakota, but on radar the storms had already developed and looked to be messy and likely to form a line instead of remaining individual cells, so we opted to stay put. Later on we saw small cells start to develop in our area, so we hit the road south to intercept. The rest of the day was spent playing tag with various small storms in the area from south of Holdrege to south of Kearney. These storms were small and very high based, and had little if any lightning. Later on closer to sunset we did see a better storm on radar approaching Guide Rock- and a phone call to Mike Umscheid confirmed that this was a pretty good cell and even had some hail. We drove to near Nelson, NE to intercept, and viewed the cell to the west. It had a decent rain/hail core, and some sort-of-supercellular structure, but again had little if any lightning. Soon after this time we could see the tail end of the squall line farther NW, and knew our cell was doomed.

We had met up with Mike by then, and just drove east ahead of the squall line until we got to a point south of York, where we decided to go into town and eat. As we drove north the line approached and then overtook us- it had frequent lightning and winds to maybe 40-50 mph, but no hail. The anvil crawlers were fairly nice off to the east as we approached York, but not frequent enough to stop and photograph.

We ate with Mike and company in York, and then headed to Ken Dewey's house to crash for the night.

Photos here

More later on future plans.

Maybe a good day finally??

2006-05-23T10:35:00.000-04:00

First off we did chase in far NW Kansas yesterday- the moisture and upper support were both lacking, so the storms were pretty junky. We did not even bother with the mess in eastern Colorado- we did watch a small dried up storm NW of Goodland or an hour or so, but then gave up and headed east to our current location in Holdrege, NE just north of the Kansas border. This area still looks to be in the ballpark for today's action, so we will hold here until at least noon so see what the latest data shows.

Headed to NE Colorado

2006-05-22T12:43:00.000-04:00

Decided to chase today in NE Colorado- we will be leaving soon from DDC. SPC now has a 5% tornado risk in that area- the low-levels look good, but the upper support is lacking until after dark. So right now I expect some supercells, but the SPC risk seems overdone.

Then we will stay in SC Nebraska to set up for tomorrow- the target has now shifted north to perhaps the eastern sandhills from Hastings to Oneill.

More later, gotta run.

Getting into Dodge

2006-05-21T23:54:00.000-04:00

Today was a set-up day. I first drove to Vince Miller's house in the northern part of Oklahoma City, where I met up with Jim Leonard and Steve Wachholder. I then transferred most of my gear into Jim's van, and left my vehicle in Vince's driveway (thanks Vince).

We then headed north and west to Dodge City- we decided to go there because it seemed to be a good midway point between a possible chase Monday in eastern Colorado and the Tuesday target of central Kansas. Also we wanted to meet up with Meso Mike Umscheid. After checking into the motel we went out to dinner with Mike- and just before we got our meal the power went out in that part of town due to a traffic accident that knocked over a utility pole. This actually turned out to be a blessing in disguise as we were virtually the last people in the establishment to get our meals- and Steve's steak was lost in the confusion and we ended up getting all of our meals free! Then we went to visit the DDC weather service, where Mike looked at some data for the upcoming days.

So we will reevaluate the situation tomorrow morning both for Monday and Tuesday- we may or may not chase tomorrow, but Tuesday looks like a no-brainer somewhere in central Kansas.

The game is afoot!

2006-05-21T01:03:00.000-04:00

I left Atlanta at about 12:20 PM today- I have decided to head to Oklahoma City and meet up with Jim Leonard- after that who knows right now, except to say that we will be heading in some northerly direction after that. I am currently in Russelville, AR along I-70 in between Little Rock and Ft. Smith. (The Super 8 here is very nice, reasonably priced with free breakfast and WiFi).

The models have still decided not to agree on a solution completely- the closed low now spinning off the CA coast is going to eject east and northeast over the next 72 hours, that is a given. However the speed and exact trajectory of this critical feature is still very much in question. Will it come out quickly enough for a chase day in eastern CO on Monday? Tuesday all along has looked like the best day this week, but the models still refuse to come to a final solution on exactly what the short wave will do when it comes into the long-wave mean ridge position- previous runs had it punching into the ridge with a more eastward trajectory- which would mean maybe northern KS to central NE would be the best place to be in Tuesday. But now the 00Z models are leaning (especially the GFS) towards a solution of the short weakening more and heading farther north, which would mean South Dakota and northern Nebraska would be the target. Of course if that turned out to be the case, then that might mean we would blow off the Monday chase if it seems too marginal, in order to minimize the driving.

Then after that it still looks like the northern Plains will be the place towards the Memorial Day weekend.

Well, maybe.

2006-05-18T14:06:00.000-04:00

I should have known better than to get too excited about that one run of the GFS- even if it was supported by the ensembles. The death ridge is still forecast to break down, but how much and for how long is still the $64 question. The models are all over the place (what else is new), especially after 5 days out- one thing I do not really like is the persistent trend on most of the models for the establishment of a Gulf of Alaska upper vortex by later next week and beyond- this is not where you want to see an upper low, since that position tends to favor ridging over the western U.S.

In the meantime, however, it does seem likely that we will see at least one chase day
from Monday to Wednesday of next week- right now the latest run of the GFS favors Wednesday but that will probably shift again a few more times in the models. At least there continues to be some hope. As far as my personal plans go, these keep changing as much as the models. Right now I am leaning towards going directly from ATL to Lincoln NE on saturday and/or Sunday, and maybe hook up with someone from there- Jim Leonard is still uncertain with his plans.

This has been one of the more mentally exhausting seasons in a while- and I have not even left yet!

Is it true???

2006-05-17T13:26:00.000-04:00

The new models have undergone a radical change for the better- but it is still just a bit too early to dwell on any sort of specifics. I can probably state with at least some confidence that the nasty western "death ridge" that has shut down all chasing for a week now will break down or flatten by early next week. Any statement more specific than that will have to wait for at least several more model cycles- but I would be surprised if the period of the 22nd to the 25th does not yield at least one fruitful day in the northern half of "chase alley". Therefore it looks like my original plan of leaving Atlanta Saturday is still on, and right now I still plan to meet up with Jim Leonard in OKC on Sunday for an immediate departure north.

Why it is sometimes folly to try long range forecasting

2006-05-16T01:13:00.000-04:00

OK, looking at the latest models, I may just shut up for at least a few days about the extended outlooks.

The new models are a lot different from their previous runs, they are very different than each other- I actually should not be surprised given the fairly wide spread in the ensembles recently. It still looks like no chasing until next week at the earliest, but beyond that it is becoming obvious that there is really no way to say right now what will transpire until there is a lot more agreement with all the myriad guidance...and that not be for a few days at the least.

Still a gloomy chase outlook

2006-05-14T01:22:00.001-04:00

Since my last post I was beginning to get a bit more optimistic about a pattern shift that would lead to some storm chase opportunities by the time I go out to the Plains on Saturday. However, the models and ensembles, which were trying to come to some sort of a consensus of a more favorable flow regime by the week of the 21st on, have now somewhat backed off on this a bit, especially the control run of the GFS. The ensembles are a bit more optimistic, but the individual members are showing a lot more spread, which means a lot more uncertainty. The bottom line- I think that the first week of my vacation is very iffy for chasing, maybe a few marginal situations at best, especially later in the period.
Also, it is becoming more and more likely that if and when the good chase pattern begins, it will be in the central and northern Plains from northern KS northward- I may be spending a lot of my time up in the Dakotas and Montana. Not that this is necessarily a bad thing, maybe the remoteness of this area will keep the number of chase hordes in check a bit.

For a much more technical explanation from long-range guru Ed Berry at NWS Dodge City on why it may be until the end of the month before the pattern shifts to a SW flow,
go here.

It keeps getting worse

2006-05-10T15:22:00.001-04:00

There continues to be nary a shred or a dollop of hope regarding any chasing in the Plains over the next week, and very likely beyond that. The atmosphere is conspiring to give us the ultimate anti-chase pattern with a strong blocking pattern of deep upper-air low pressure gyres in the worst places imaginable- the eastern Pacific and the eastern half of NOAM. Every run of every operational model and virtually every GFS ensemble member is forecasting no change to this pattern all the way out until I begin my chase vacation on May 19 or 20, and even beyond that there are indications that this awful pattern may persist. I still have hope that because I am chasing until least the 11th of June that there will be a large pattern shift and maybe we can get some of this constipated blockiness to work for us, not against us. But that nasty voice in the back of my mind is saying that after all is said and done, we will all remember 2006 as the chase year that wasn't. I hope that I can eat crow on that statement...

Some forecast musings for the next 1-2 weeks.

2006-05-08T02:54:00.001-04:00

UPDATE
Well, I did not think it could get worse, but it did- the new ECMWF (European) model is now on board with a massive ridge over the West in the 6-10 day period. This matches very well with the new ensemble mean and virtually all the individual members. So it looks like there is at least an 80% chance of a complete Plains chasing shutdown from Wednesday for at least one week, and perhaps as long as ten days. I hope some miracle occurs and all the models are selling us so much snake oil, but I really doubt it.

Well, I have not seen the 00Z runs yet, hopefully this is just an aberration, but the ensemble members, which have been so chaotic over the past week for the mid-May time frame, have now become very close together all the way to about 180 hours. What they are showing is a persistent ridge in the West until about 240 hours. Then a trough begins to show up in the mean over the SW U.S. with SW flow in the High plains beyond the 10 day time frame. This western ridge scenario has been supported all along by many straight runs of the op ECMWF and other models. What this all means, at least IMHO, is that chasing opportunities in the long range will at first be confined to an occasional NW flow setup, but there will be multi-day stretches of no activity as cold fronts penetrate to the Gulf or as least to south TX. Then around the 17th or so there is a fair chance that a more favorable flow regime will slowly emerge. Remember last May- the last two weeks were fairly lean with only a few marginal days in the NW flow- but then we had the almost unbroken string of good days from June 2 to the 12th. So I am still hoping for a good late May and early June.

Looks like Monday and Tuesday will be interesting in the KS/OK area- if the NAM is close to being correct then OK could see a few tornadoes Tuesday.

Getting closer...

2006-05-07T12:01:00.000-04:00

Less than two weeks now until the "official" chase season begins for me, and already I am having the usual irrational fears about the overall weather pattern. Once again I contemplated going out there this weekend- but once again it looks like this situation falls just short of my criteria for a short-notice chase. For me to drive all the way out to the Plains by myself the situation has to be better than marginal or even pretty good- it has to be a virtual slam-dunk for tornadoes and/or awesome supercells. This past Friday would have met the criteria, but of course it was during my work week. There were some incredible supercells- check out this and this near Patricia, TX
This storm did not come without a price however, evidently quite a few chasers had this happen to their vehicles- the second year in a row that storms somewhere close to Lubbock in early May did a number on a lot of chaser transportation.

Anyway, back to the upcoming chase- I am getting a bad feeling in the pit of my stomach about the overall weather pattern as it pertains to chasing in May- a lot of the operational forecast models and ensembles are showing a less than stellar pattern for producing the type of supercells I am after on a chase. This spring so far has been characterized by a lot of blockiness in the atmosphere- with persistent troughiness in the eastern U.S. What you really like to see is a SW flow aloft over the Plains, and right now there is little sign of that in the long-range models. Luckily my vacation is 12-13 days away, and it seems at least feasible and perhaps likely than this upcoming bad pattern will change to something more to my liking by then, but I cannot stop my fretting about it, even though my rational side tells me to chill out and just ignore the long range progs until my chase is less than a week away. But I know that will not happen.

Another change in chasing plans

2006-05-01T18:55:00.000-04:00

Things keep evolving as far as the chase plans for 2006 go-

In my last post I said that Betsy would not be chasing with me this season. Well, now it looks like she WILL be chasing after all- but not until June. The plan now is for her to fly out to Oklahoma City on June 3rd, and chase with me until the 13th, since I have to be back at work on the 14th. This will work out really well overall, since I was originally going to have to drive by myself during that period- and I really want to avoid that in the future.

Today there is a tornado watch in IL and MO- and a few days ago I considered a short notice chase if the situation looked potent enough, but so far it has turned out to be only a marginally good situation in fair to poor chase territory.

The next two weekends need to be monitored for chasing- right now the longer range models are leaning againt any chase possibilities for this coming weekend.

I'm Back

2006-04-17T14:02:00.000-04:00

Very long time between entries- But my storm chase time is approaching fast and I will try from now on to do more frequent posting, even when I am not out chasing.

As most are very aware, this has been a very active early start to tornado season with a lot of significant events- mostly a bit east of "chase alley". When I am not out on my vacation in late May and early June I can sometimes arrange to chase big events by doing what I term a "short notice chase"- chasing on my 3 days off from work. Some of my most successful days have been of this type- May 3, 1999 in OK, May 17 2000 (Brady, NE) and May 5 & 7 2001 (Happy, TX and Mullinville, KS).

I did actually have the opportunity to chase this week- my off days currently are Saturday-Monday. I very nearly flew to Kansas City to chase in SE Nebraska, but due to the costs involved, and my concern about how many tornadic storms would actually occur, I decided at the last minute not to go. Was this wise in hindsight? Well, yes and no. There was only one really good tornado near Beatrice in SE Nebraska, and it was only visible for 5 minutes or so before wrapping in rain. There were other fairly nice supercells in the area with a few brief tornadoes, but it probably fell just short of what I really want to see when I spend the time, money and effort for a short notice chase. However, after reading the chase accounts and seeing the photos, I have a feeling that if I had gone, I would have not been terribly disappointed.

As far as my actual chase vacation this year goes, this year's will be rather different in a significant way- for the first time since I began serious chasing in 1990, it will be the first season that I will not be accompanied by my wife Betsy. She has not lost her passion for storms, but her life has undergone a significant change this past year- she recently quit her 20 year job at The Weather Channel. This has resulted in a significant reduction in our family income, and in her new job at a health food store (part time) she does not have enough time off to go on a two or three week trip. Therefore I will be heading to the Plains alone for the first time on May 20th.

I really do not relish chasing solo, as when I have done it in the past I have found that besides being more nerve-wracking and difficult, it is really rather dangerous because it is very hard to concentrate on driving when you are constantly scanning the skies or reading maps or whatever.

Therefore it looks like that I will end up driving to the Plains in my own vehicle, but I am probably going to hook up with Jim Leonard and Cyclone Tours and ride with them for the first two weeks at least, and after that maybe chase with Jay Antle and Mike Umscheid in June. This will help me save $$, and reduce the overall stress of chasing.

Back at home

2005-06-15T10:59:00.000-04:00

I drove home over two days Monday and Tuesday- I did briefly go up into southern OK on Monday afternoon to view a junky looking severe squall line, but it did not even present any good photographic opportunities.

It was a great season overall, the only really disappointing day was June 9, since we missed the multiple tornadic event near Hill City, but we did see one tube that day anyhow. I got a ton of great photos, some pretty good video, and met a lot of chase friends along the way. Looking forward to hurricane season, and next Plains chase season. Next it's off to Chicago and Wisconsin Dells for the ACE Coaster Convention- I was going to watch to see if there would be any chase opportunities this coming week as well, but the models are showing a "death ridge" which should confine chasing to the far northern and NW Plains, so this is likely it for me for supercell chasing this year.

For pics of June 10 and 11 in the Texas panhandle, go here

Mike Umscheid wrote good summaries of those two days, along with June 12- just visit his blog link at the right side of this page.

Matt

June 11-12

2005-06-13T11:43:00.000-04:00

Not a real log- will do that later. Short version, we missed the weak tornadoes near Wayside, TX on the 11th, we were on the tornado warned storm near Amarillo.

The next day we saw 8 tornadoes SE of Lubbock, TX near Claremont and Jayton.

Photos here

Matt

June 9 log

2005-06-11T08:42:00.000-04:00

We started the day in North Platte, NE. We decided that the best storms would be to the south in far SW Nebraska or NW Kansas. So we went to McCook, NE and looked at data while having lunch. Then we saw that storms were developing very near us and also in KS. Then we made the decision to see what the storms near us were doing- we went east and saw a supercell to the west near Indianola, but it did not look all that great, despite having a tornado warning. So we dropped south to near Norton, KS, and saw a flat base to the west, which was also tornado warned, and supposedly had a tornado sighted. So we went west to view it, but again were not overly impressed. By now we were hearing the reports of the tornadoes with the storm to the south, so we bagged the Norton storm and blasted south to HLC- but by now we were missing the REALLY big shoe to our east, so we made the decision to not try and get around the beast, and drop south to a newly tornado warned storm in Trego county. When we got to the Interstate, we immediately viewed great structure just to the west, with one rotating wall cloud a couple of miles due west. We stopped (but Jim L kept going- I would have also if we had not been on the interstate, I was afraid of getting trapped and nor being able to turn around). Right after we halted, a small nub funnel developed to the left of the wall cloud and soon after an elephant trunk tornado formed. The contrast was only fair, but I did get tripoded video of its entire life cycle- and we did see a debris cloud. After about 9 minutes the tornado wrapped in rain and weakened, but it did cross the interstate, knocking semis off the road- OF Jim Leonard actually drove right through the F0 vortex getting great video. In hindsight I wish I had gotten up the road a piece, the contrast was much better a mile or two down the road, and there was no hail as I had feared.

Next we played hopscotch with the rotating wall cloud to the NE of the old meso, but it never produced anything more that a few dusty weak spin ups, and we blew it off after about another half an hour, We then headed south towards DDC, stopping to get a few nice sunset/mammatus pics.

I am disappointed we missed probably the show of the year, but at least we were not completely skunked, and this is now officially the only time I have seen good tornadoes three out of four days.

Photos here

Matt

June 3-8 log

2005-06-10T02:03:00.000-04:00

After dropping Betsy off at the airport, I decided to go to LIC and see if some storms would fire again in eastern CO- but after sitting in the library for a few hours, it became evident that any convection would not be supercellular, due to the lack of moisture. So I made the decision to blast east to stay with Ken Dewey at his house in Lincoln, since the next day looked to be good in that general vicinity. As it turned out, I should have paid more attention to the situation close to the vort max and surface low in the area from the northern TX Panhandle to SW Kansas, as there were several mini-supercells that produced tornadoes near Ness City, KS and Perryton, TX.

The next day, it became fairly obvious that Kansas was going to ground zero for any tornadic action- and SPC came out with a high risk over a large area. Ken took his equipment and piled into my CRV. and we headed SW. Upon getting into the Junction City, KS area on the interstate, we ran into a horde of chasers, including the Minnesota Twister Sisters, with National Geographic film crews in tow. We looked at data for an hour or so- storms began to fire along an old outflow boundary from NE to SW. We made (as it turned out) the fateful decision to not go after the first echoes to our immediate NE, and head south to the area NE of Wichita. After sitting east of McPherson for a spell, we could see on Ken's ThreatNet that there was explosive development about 30 miles due west of us, so we blasted in that direction. When we approached the storm we could see that it had a flat flared base, it had that "tornado look" to it, but it was at that point that the day started in a downward spiral. A small storm immediately to the east was evidently interfering with our cell, so despite a few wall clouds and attempts at tornadogenesis, the whole thing congealed into a messy blob, so we than decided to blow off this area and try and intercept new storms east and NE of Wichita. We drove to Emporia. where we could see on the radar a broken line of many small supercells off to the SW, but visually none of them looked that impressive as we headed south ahead of the line. At a point about 30-40 miles south of Emporia, we decided to stop and look at a cell with a decent base off to the west. When I got to a place where I could view through the trees, I immediately saw a distant long elephant trunk funnel. pointed sideways then halfway to the ground, The contrast was horrendous, and the storm was at least 20 miles away, so i got basically no video and I could not confirm if this was actually a tornado. It vanished from view after another few seconds.

That basically ended our chase- and then we heard about the large tornado some folks caught with that initial cell we blew off in NE Kansas- oh well. Then began the long trek back to Lincoln, got in about 1 AM.

This day began with one of my famous brain farts. I had been in contact with my partners for the rest of the season, Jay Antle and Mike Umscheid. We saw that York was a good place to rendezvous, as this was going to be a set-up day for the Monday target of SE Montana. However, when I pulled into the truck stop in York, I made the nasty discovery that I had left my laptop in Lincoln...doh! I called Ken, and sure enough, my computer bag was in his hallway. I decided it was too difficult to go back too pick it up, I would rely on using Mike's computer for a few days, and I could go back to Lincoln later and pick it up, or meet Ken on the road and get it. So we started the long journey to our hotel north of Rapid City.

The next morning it still looked like SE Montana was the play, Mike picked out the small town of Ekalaka as the target. We went NW and stopped in Alzada, MT for a while, then decided to go north towards Ekalaka on a gravel but fairly decent road. After about 50 miles, we began to see two storms off to the west and north, the southern cell began to look interesting. and after following it for a few more miles, we saw that it had become a raging beast of a storm with awesome tiered structure and a menacing wall cloud. We were just south of Ekalaka at that juncture, and set up the tripods to record this monster. Then we decided to head north into the town, and of course the minute we started out, a small elephant trunk tornado formed off to the west. I frantically tried to stop and get a view, and did video the ending stages of this approx 1 minute duration tube. After it dissippated, we noticed a high spot near some propane tanks, and noticed a car of chasers there already- it turned out to be the Verkaiks from Canada. After setting up the cameras, the old occluded meso back to the west and northwest produced two more tornadoes- another elephant trunk and a longer lived truncated cone with condensation halfway to the ground, but there was no doubt that there was circulation to the ground. We then decided to leave, as the tornado appeared to be dissipating, and rain was obscuring it besides. This may have been a error, as later I saw a rope out funnel back to the SW in the rain.

The next few hours was spent staying out in front of a picturesque shelf cloud and raging squall line as we went north to Baker, MT (where we saw Roger Hill, who else), then east to SW North Dakota, then back south to the same hotel in Spearfish . A very good day, the first Montana tornado for all of us.

Tuesday dawned with hope for another great day, and as it turned out it was. The data showed a strong signal for supercells in the SW part of South Dakota, so off we headed to the area SE and E of Rapid City. A on the road glance at the satellite and surface showed a convergent area near Pine Ridge, so we planned out a route to that area, and as we pulled into Cactus Flat, we ran into a huge mass of chasers we knew, including Bobby Prentice and gang, Charles Edwards and Alnado. The consensus was to head south into Badlands National Park, to intercept two cells now showing up on radar to the SW. A lot of chasers had to pay the $10 entrance fee (a tornado watching charge?), but I used my handy-dandy NP parks pass.

We (along with Jim L and Bobby P) came upon a great high spot overlooking the fantastic scenery of the Badlands, and spent the next hour there with jaws dropping and cameras rolling as two supercells slowly developed off to the SW and west. the southern cell was from the start the meatiest, and gradually took on more and more of an awesome appearance. We made the decision to get closer to the storm, and drove to the town of Interior and dropped south to get ahead of it. As we got closer, it became quickly evident that this was no ordinary supercell, the huge barrel ahead of was was a truly awe-inspiring sight, easily in my top five structure-wise. It was a cross between the 2000 Brady, NE storm and the photos I have seen of the Spearman, TX storm in 1990.

The problem now was that we had left our Badlands spot about 5 minutes too late, because we had to keep driving south to stay ahead of the storm, as we (rightly) though this beast would be producing gorilla hail. After a few miles, we saw a slender funnel and tornado develop, but since we were driving my video is shaky and I got no stills of the tornado. After hitting the east road, we stopped briefly to video the slender serpentine tornado west of us, then got to a point out of the rain and hail to take a few more pics as the tornado roped out. Then we followed the storm for the next few hours up to the interstate, it had great structure all the way, went through many occlusions, but produced no more tornadoes. We barely got ahead of the cell on I-90, just before the derecho from hell blasted east.

At that point I broke off from the rest of the group, as I was attempting to meet up with Ken, to get my laptop which he had brought along while he chased. However, a comedy of errors involving bad cell phone coverage prevented this from happening until 1 AM in ONeill, NE. Ken Then proceeded to hit a deer as he was driving home- my forgetfulness sure caused a lot of hassle.
June 6 Photos here
June 7 Photos here

Matt

June 1-2 log

2005-06-05T09:47:00.000-04:00

On Wednesday, we knew the day was going to be down, so we took our time traveling to the north from our motel in Plainview. We were originally targeting NE Colorado, but we wanted to stay a bit farther south in case the SW Kansas area went up. So we got an early motel room in Garden City, did laundry, and relaxed.

The next day was very confusing. SPC put out a large 15% tornado risk for the entire western KS and eastern CO- but I could see from the data that there was a stout cap forecast in KS, and an 18Z sounding in DDC confirmed it. So we started out towards the west, with the intention of chasing somewhere west of Burlington. However, just in case the cap in the area we were leaving broke, we took a stop for data in Syracuse, in the far western portion of KS. It was at that point that we saw strong cumulus towers about 50 miles to the SE. We waffled a bit, and then made the call to go back SE. A short time later, as we approached Hugoton, KS, we heard a severe thunderstorm warning for a cell just off to the south, then a tornado warning was issued. Great! We thought, in this very unstable environment, if a storm is able to break the cap, then tornadoes are a good possibility. We approached the town, and could see a nice updraft and base. We drove through some 1" hail, and decided we had time for a gas stop. Then we went out of town on an east road to watch the storm. But a nasty surprise awaited us as the storm came into view to the north- the cell had a very small high base, and was shrinking rapidly. I got off a couple of photos, and called DDC NWS to let them know the storm was dying a rapid death. However, they continued the tornado warning for 20 more minutes, I guess they did not believe me. Anyway, in about 15 minutes, the storm was completely gone. And we could see that the cap was really taking hold, possibly because the cirrus from an approaching southern stream disturbance was suppressing the heating.

So we then decided to make a mad dash for Colorado, but knew that sunset was approaching fast. We heard about tornadoes already occurring along the interstate, and we thought we might be able to just catch a cell at dark near Burlington. These hopes were soon dashed, though, as we were stopped for speeding in Kit Carson county, (78 in a 65 zone), but the sheriff was very nice and we got off with a warning. As it turned out the supercells had been undercut with outflow already, and the tornadic show was over, and besides it was getting quite dark. As we stopped to shoot lightning, we ran into Dave Gold and company, and found out that the tornadoes we missed were brief and/or rain wrapped, but there was some awesome HP structure, which would have been nice to witness.

It was then time to get Betsy back to Denver for her flight back to Atlanta the next morning. On the way, though, we were treated to a view of a small nicely sculpted bell shaped supercell, illuminated by frequent lightning. Tried to get photos, but the strong northerly wind prevented setting up the tripod without the camera shaking. I did get a bit of decent video.

Then it was off to the motel near the DEN airport.

Matt (photos later)

May 31 log

2005-06-01T11:14:00.000-04:00

We began the day in Dalhart, and decided the best place to be was somewhere west of Lubbock along an old outflow boundary. When we got to Littlefield, we went into the library, and looked at more data. We still thought we were in a good spot, but did see some storms firing near Amarillo, but since the best mid and upper level winds were more down towards our area, so we hung around the Littlefield area for a while longer. Later, further information showed that the target to the north and northwest looked better, so we blasted north. Upon approaching Hereford, a tornado warning was issued, and we could see a pretty good wall cloud to the north, but it quickly became undercut by cold outflow, and since the road network at that time was not conducive for easily following this storm, we decided to target a new cell near Clovis. When we got to a position east of Muleshoe we could see that the cell was a small but nice classic supercell. We hung out for a while and watched it grow into a pretty respectable storm. We dropped south to keep ahead of the cell, and north of Sudan it began to develop a pretty nice wall cloud, but it had a lot strange motion it, never really good rotation. This portion of the storm began to die as outflow was undercutting it from the north, but we could see a possible new meso off to the east, so we drove down to highway 87. Sure enough a new area of interest was off to the north, but it had that undercut/HP look to it. We then began a long game of tag with the storm, blasting SE down 87, stopping every couple of miles to get out and photograph. Near Amherst, we stopped to look to the north where there was a wall cloud with a very nice tail cloud streaming in from the forward flank. Soon a bowl shaped lowering could be seen about 3 miles or so to the north, with a possible brief white cone back in the notch, and we could see some sort of dust underneath, but it was hard to tell what was really going on back in there. Then cold RFD/outflow hit us, and I commented that if any sort of spin up was occurring, it would not be able to sustain itself. Sure enough, I later heard from Jim Leonard, who was right up in the notch, that he saw a brief weak multi-vortex spin up, but because of the undercutting cold air, it had no real chance of it lasting very long.
We continued our trek southeast ahead of the storm, occasionally stopping for some very nice photos of the HP structure. The chaser caravan along highway 87 was pretty amazing, we saw literally hundreds of chase vehicles.

We decided that this storm was never going to tornado due to the outflow, so instead of going into Lubbock and getting hailed on, we went southwest to near Ropesville, and were treated to a spectacular view of the updraft lit up orange by the setting sun.

After a nice dinner at Hub City Brewing in Lubbock (highly recommended, great beer and good food), we went to Plainview for the night.

Photos here

Matt

May 30 log

2005-06-01T11:11:00.000-04:00

We started the day in Guymon, and determined that the action would be best beginning on the Raton Mesa of far northeast NM and SE Colorado. Upon reaching Clayton, we went north through Des Moines, NM and towards Branson, CO just north of the border. Upon reaching the junction of US highway 160, we ran into Al Moeller and company, and also Alnado. We watched a storm move off to our north and NE- and worried it might tap cold air north of the front, so decided to hang out where we were. It turned out that if we had gone after that storm, we would have seen a nice supercell and maybe a brief tornado, but that was alright, because after not too long two supercells developed- one was a left split LP to the northwest, and another stronger classic right over the mesa. We dropped south to Branson, and the DOWs showed up, so we figured we were on a good storm. Sure enough, the cell took on a very nice appearance as it slowly moved east towards us, with a barrel shaped updraft, and a small but persistent funnel was seen as well. After a while this storm began to take on less of a pretty look, so we decided to move south back towards Des Moines. When we got to that area, I could not really see the structure of a new cell just to the west, and made what turned out to be a bad error- we decided to keep heading southeast towards Clayton. I did see some kind of a storm continuing out the rear view mirror, but because of the terrain, I did not really get a glimpse of the updraft. We happened to be following Alameda at the time- and about 10 miles west of town, he suddenly stopped and turned around. I wondered why, but continued to go towards Clayton. Mistake # 2. As it turned out, the storm we blew off produced a very slender cone tornado- which Alnado saw right after he turned around, despite it being 30 miles away near Des Moines. Oh well, that's chasing.
Before dark set in we went north out of Clayton, towards Kenton, OK in the far NW panhandle. We did see a brief mesocyclone to the NW that had a bowl-shaped lowering and explosive convection above, but the updraft quickly became more linear.

We then called it a day and headed to our motel in Dalhart, TX

Photos here

Matt

May 29 log

2005-06-01T11:09:00.000-04:00

On this day, because of weak mid and upper wind flow, we decided not to chase, but to hike in Black Mesa State Park, in the far western Oklahoma panhandle. We got a bit of a late start, and when we got there some thunderstorms were already developing to the south and east. However, the cumulus to the north and west had a relatively stable look to them, so we decided to hike anyway, since I thought any storm would most likely move southeast or south. This turned out to not a wise choice, because when we got about a couple of miles down the trail, we noticed that a storm which had been grumbling a bit well to the south seemed to be getting closer. So to be safe, we turned back. Too late, as the storm began to overtake us- so we took shelter on the lee side of a low juniper bush, as heavy rain and hail up to penny size pelted down. This proved to be scant shelter, and we were soon soaked through. So we decided to head back to the car- luckily the storm had no close lightning and we made it without further incident. Finally we headed back to the motel in Guymon to change our clothes and call it a day.

PS, if you are in Guymon, the Acapulco Mexican restaurant is very good, but avoid Cactus Jack's steakhouse.

Matt

May 26-28 log

2005-05-29T12:44:00.000-04:00

On Thursday, we did not chase- we just hung out in the Albuquerque area, had lunch with chaser Scott Fitzgerald, and hiked in Petroglyph National Monument.

Friday was a very eventful day. We saw that there was a pretty good chance of supercells in the Las Vegas area- so we took off at about noon, After getting onto I 25 near Santa Fe, we could see explosive towers to the east and NE. We stopped near Bernal as a HP supercell was just to the north- with a menacing shelf cloud heading right for us. I then made a fateful decision- why not see what kind of hail was in this storm- given what I knew about the situation that day, I figured that we would see stones up to maybe golf ball size- and if we got a couple of dents, no big deal. However, this turned out to be a fatal error- as I was indeed right about the size of the hailstones- but not the number. We soon were sitting in a barrage of golf ball hail- which lasted a good five minutes. Luckily the window glass survived, but the hood and top have dozens of small to medium dents, and the tail lights have many cracks. Oh well, that's chasing- and I did get easily the best hail video I have personally shot.

We then could not really drop south easily to keep up with this storm, so we decided to go north on the interstate. Just north of Las Vegas, we ran into another hailstorm- this time pea to marble sized- but it covered the interstate enough that many people slid off into the ditch.

Then we just basically headed for Clayton, as there were too many storms firing up to have any good supercells- but we did get a few nice pictures of the storms over the high prairies- and we ran into two more hailstorms.

Saturday we had a decision- go to the chase party, or chase in Colorado. After looking at the data, we decided to chase- and in hindsight maybe it was a bad decision, but what the heck. We went to Lamar, saw towers to the north, and went to near Cheyenne Wells- heard of a tornado warning near Goodland, but decided that was not worth going after. A storm was ongoing to the north- it was not really a supercell- but was pretty with a rain free base. We stopped south of Sharon Springs, for a half hour or so- and watched the storm until it died, then headed back t Guymon. Not a total bust, since I got a few nice photos.

Photos here

Matt

May 25 log

2005-05-26T11:54:00.000-04:00

A surprisingly good day in eastern NM.

We began in Lamar- got a late start but made it to Clayton, NM by about 2 PM. Stopped briefly in the library, and all of the data showed that the cold frontal push would probably preclude a chase in TX, with the only shot being well back in the higher terrain in the Springer to Roy to Las Vegas area. We then went south from Clayton, and the radar showed cells to the west near Springer, and Las Vegas. We decided to head west to Mosquero- and when we finally reached that area up in a mesa- we could see visually that the Springer storm was small, and being undercut, but the storm to our SW looked very healthy, with multiple inflow bands and a flat updraft base. We wended our way southwest from there- and when we got closer we could see a small bell shaped updraft to our south. This small supercell shrank quickly, but we could see a hard anvil edge to its southwest- and as we continued to approach it, it became evident that this was a honkin' supercell, with an explosive updraft, circular base and very good overturning convection in the anvil. This was close to Trementina- and as we stopped to photograph, we noticed a very distinct mid level funnel up in the area of the anvil knuckles. Next we dropped south and stopped again, to witness a dump of precip and a small wall cloud form. This wall cloud did exhibit weak to moderate rotation, and at one point a small wisp of condensation came rising up off the ground beneath it- but we saw no concrete evidence that this was a tornado- we were too far away to really tell. The structure was very nice still, but it was becoming increasingly evident that this storm was transitioning from dry classic to HP.
The road network then forced us to go east and lose the storm for a while, but picked it up on the interstate. By this time it was beginning to weaken, probably partly due to a new storm to its immediate SE. We considered trying to chase this cell, but the road options were bad. So at that point we basically ended the chase.
Photos here

Matt

May 24 log

2005-05-25T09:32:00.000-04:00

We had a pretty productive day on Tuesday in eastern Colorado. We started the day in Burlington, and after examining the data, we decided that we should be a bit farther to the north and west for initiation. We went to the public library in Yuma and saw on the radar that some strong cells were developing to the northwest near New Raymer. We headed west towards Akron (bad road construction on the stretch of highway between Yuma and Akron). Upon reaching Akron, were greeted with the sight of a menacing shelf cloud to the north and west. We went a bit south of town, and set up the tripods as the storm approached. It did have a tornado warning on it at this time, but was obviously HP and outflow dominated. Still, as we watched, a kink developed on the gust front, and fairly rapid rotation could be seen at cloud base, and a lot of dust underneath. Tornado? Sustained? who knows- but it was an interesting feature nonetheless.

We then had to retreat south and give up on this storm, but we could see on the radar and visually that a new cell with a rock hard updraft was to our southeast. So we booked in south and then east towards Idalia. As we got underneath the updraft, we could see that it was supercellular- and after getting by with only a few clicks of marble hail , we were treated to a nice structure show- for a brief time there was a high based wall cloud with some rotation, and some dust was visible underneath- weak tornado? Perhaps. We dropped south for some structure shots as the storm began to gust out- then blasted to Burlington. At that point, after looking at radar, we decided to go east to Goodland, then drop south to catch some tail-end charlie action, We did see some nice outflow features while approaching Goodland- and several downbursts and a few gustnadoes.

We dropped south from Goodland- and upon reaching Tribune, decided to head west. When we got to near Towner just across the border, we could see that the storm on the south end of the line was an HP beast from hell. Luckily we had a due south option at this point, and the supercell was moving due south- so we were able to keep out of its path, It was getting dark at this point, but we did get a few pics and video. When we got to Holly, the structure at this point was jaw dropping- a many tiered layer cake, but it was so dark it precluded any photography, but I did get some video.

Then we decided to head for Lamar for the night. However, there was a severe squall in the way- but we decided to punch the core, as the hail was only supposed to be about 1 inch. near Grenada we pulled off to the side as the hail and 70 mph winds hit- the hail was intense, but not bigger that marble size. After it passed, we headed to Lamar for dinner, where we met Dave Gold and crew in the restaurant.

I will post a link to pictures later.

Looks like a cold front will shut down chasing for a while- so it is off to my uncle's house in Albuquerque for a few days to wait for the pattern to change.
Photos here

Matt

May 23 log

2005-05-23T23:22:00.000-04:00

Today we started out in Columbia, MO- we knew we had to get all the way into eastern CO-so we got up at 8 AM and blasted west on I-70. On the way we got some data, and the general target did not really change much, so we continued westbound until we got to Oakley, KS. At that point we had a choice- according to out intrepid nowcaster Mike Umscheid, there were storms firing on the Palmer Divide, but after some consultation we decided to target new storms/towers that were a lot closer to us, west and north of Burlington, CO, Upon arriving in Burlington, we observed a supercell wannabe to our NW- it was pretty much rain filled, but has a little bit of structure. At he same time a hard updraft could be seen due north of us on a storm near Wray, CO- and we decided to target that cell. As we moved north, we could begin to see that this was an HP supercell- and at that time a tornado warning was issued. However, we never saw anything that looked to be tornadic- I did get a few decent photos of the structure, such as it was. We followed the storm east towards St Francis, KS, but heard of a new tornado warning back to the west- so we went back towards Idalia, CO. At that time is when we saw a pretty decent wall cloud, that took on a bowl shaped appearance for a brief time. But soon after that the storm died, and after meeting up with Jim Leonard and John Monteverdi we blew off the chase and headed for Burlington for dinner and a motel room. At a steakhouse in Burlington we met up with Cloud 9 tours as well. We are staying at the Chaparral Motor Inn in Burlington- a very nice AAA rated establishment, with pretty cheap rooms that have W-Fi internet access.

I will post pics at a later date- nothing was all that great anyway (although we were treated to a nice continuous lightning show after dinner off to the south).

Matt

Interstate blogging

2005-05-22T19:22:00.000-04:00

As one of my previous entries stated- technology can be a blessing as well as a curse- right now as I type this we are hurtling down the interstate at 70 mph (I 24 near Paducah to be exact), thanks to my Cingular GSM data connection (wireless with Bluetooth). This is the first of what should be daily entries during my chase vacation.
Tomorrow looks like the destination is still Colorado, but looking at the latest models, Nebraska needs to be watched as a target also. We are planning to drive as far as possible tonight- to maybe near Kansas City, reevaluate the situation there, and leave tomorrow morning westbound.

Matt

Almost time to go out!

2005-05-20T14:11:00.001-04:00

Well, this coming Sunday is when our official chase vacation begins- and despite what looked like a rotten pattern earlier in the week, the upcoming situation now appears to be at least somewhat favorable for supercells in the upslope areas of the High Plains, most likely beginning on Tuesday, and lasting for several days. Luckily it now looks like the "death ridge" in the West will flatten enough to allow westerly flow in the mid and upper levels- and if this is co-located with moist upslope surface flow- then we could see a few productive days.
I did go out chasing this past week- saw the nice supercell in Grand Island on Tuesday, but busted on Wednesday. Still, it was a nice opportunity to test out some new equipment and my new chase vehicle (a 2005 Honda CRV).

Matt

How close is too close?

2005-05-18T14:05:00.000-04:00

In case you did not hear, this last Wednesday in the Texas panhandle near South Plains, a fairly large number of chasers had their vehicles battered and in many cases totaled by baseball and larger hail. This type of incident has been increasing over the past several years, where more and more chasers have been finding themselves in pretty hairy situations. This is a result of having that desire to "get up close and personal" in order get that ultimate video of houses blowing apart, or debris swirling around in very close proximity...this hobby has really become a lot more of a pure thrill seeking endeavor than it used to be. The reasons for this are multi-faceted- but I think the main one is just plain old envy. We are all human, and envy is a very natural emotion. So as we all continue see a constant barrage of very spectacular video of up close tornadoes, or baseballs shredding buildings and trees, the natural tendency is for us to want to take whatever risk is necessary to not be left out- somehow I think that our sense of worth as chasers is now tied into how far we can push the envelope, instead of just chasing in order to simply enjoy the beauty and majesty of the overall chase experience.

I am not saying that I am personally not guilty of some of the above tendencies- last May 29 we were on the incredible supercell near Concordia, KS- and saw unbelievable structure and at least 5 tornadoes. However, down to the south at the same time, chasers were getting even more spectacular footage of multiple highly visible tornadoes- and when I found out about this I became angry, despite just having one of my best chase days in my career.
All in all, however, I have always been one of the more cautious chasers out there- since 1990 we have only lost one windshield or window to large hail- and that was in 1991, Contrast this to some who regularly have two or three replaced every season. Also, I have increasingly become more and more interested in the photographic aspect of chasing, as opposed to simply shooting video. To me, capturing a spectacular "mother ship" storm in the setting sun is every bit as exciting as catching just about any tornado. When we failed to get east in time to see the spectacular sunset view of the Grand Island supercell a week ago, to me it was almost as bad as missing a wedge.

So where are all these trends (including the ones discussed in my last post) leading chasing? I am getting more and more afraid that the first non-driving chase fatality is not too far around the corner, as the increasing hordes continue to try and one-up each other.

Does this mean I am telling other chasers what to do? No, it is a free country and everyone has their own goals and ambitions. As long as you are not endangering others through reckless behavior, then go for it, but be aware of the dangers involved. But from a personal standpoint I will continue to be cautious in my approach to chasing- and I will always try and keep perspective and enjoy getting a Plains sunset photo with mammatus and a windmill as much as catching the "big one".

Matt

Is technology chasing's savior or ruination?

2005-04-27T16:12:00.000-04:00

Since I am just 3 months from officially gaining OF status (July 13 is when I hit the dreaded five-o), I can feel qualified in making a few observations regarding the evolution of chasing over the 15 year period that I have been involved in this endeavor. Of course I cannot even come close to the experience of chase pioneers such as Gene Moore, Al Moller, Chuck Doswell and Dave Hoadley (among others), but I can say that in 1989 chasing was a vastly different animal than it is today- and it will continue to evolve at a rapid pace. Why this nearly exponential change? Of course, the answer is technology (I include the popular media and its evolution in that umbrella).

When I first started chasing, getting data was an interesting challenge, to say the least. The main source was the local NWS office, and also fax charts that we got with a portable fax machine that we brought along. So we dialed up a few NGM, upper air and surface maps, along with the SPC outlooks. Then after we got into the target area we visited the local NWS office (if they would let us in, not all would) and asked politely if we could see the latest surface map. After analyzing that, we took off for wherever, and from that point it was completely visual, except for reports we might hear on local radio or the NOAA WX radio. Since we were brand new at the chasing game, we knew nothing about storm structure, so if we stumbled onto a good storm, it was often complete luck.

After a couple of years of bumbling across the Plains in the above fashion, I got my first laptop and cell phone. This changed things a lot- since we had access to more data in the motel room, and could sometimes get an update from a friend while on the road. We still did go to NWS offices, though, but it was not as crucial as before.

At the same time all of these changes were going on, chasing as a hobby in general was undergoing quite a revolution- mainly in tandem with the explosion of cable TV and 24 hour news/infotainment, which over-publicizes and glamorizes the hobby, and of course the premiere of the movie Twister in 1996. Those two things really changed the public perception of chasing, and led to the explosion in the number of people going out on their own- from folks that chase every year for several weeks, to the local "yahoos" who crowd the roads whenever there is a tornado warning.

Now of course, the technological aspect of the hobby has really taken off. Chasers can get high-speed internet in their vehicles, along with live radar and GPS. This capability will only get more widespread in the very near future- I just read about Wi-Max, which is like Wi-Fi, but can stretch over miles, not feet. Within the next few years, all chasers will have the capability to have every shred of information they need beamed directly into their vehicle no matter where they are, even in the most remote locations.

So is all of this evolution a good or bad thing? Well, like most things in life, there is no simple answer to that question. I have generally been an embracer of the latest technology, but maybe not to the extent that some are (my vehicle will never look like the Carson Eadsmobile). This year I considered getting the Baron XM WXWorx radar that is all the rage, but financial considerations prevented me from doing that yet. I will be chasing with a GSM cell phone connected to my laptop, which provides internet access in many parts of chase alley.
Personally, as far as chase "success" goes, there is no doubt that the new gadgets and gizmos have helped me see more and better storms than in in the old days. But is the overall experience diminished? Well, yes and no. I do lament, like many others, the loss of the experience of viewing a storm by yourself- quite often nowadays there is not even a place to pull off to the side of the road, due to the number of chasers on a particular storm. I will never forget one time in the Texas panhandle when we were approaching a supercell from the east, driving through the canyons of the Caprock- when we emerged up onto the plain we were greeted by a massive "chaser convergence" of at least 30 vehicles- we barely could find a small space to set up our cameras.
And this will only get worse- with all the new technology, even inexperienced chasers with no knowledge of meteorology or storm structure will be able to get the latest SPC tornado probabilities, and when they get to the area, then they will have all the tornado warnings and radar images displayed right in their car. Of course this does not guarantee success, as I still see many chasers out of their cars pointing at an outflow boundary like it is about to produce an F5. So experienced and knowledgeable chasers who can interpret the data properly and visually judge storm structure and morphology will still have the edge. Overall, though, there will continue to be more and more people out every year- lured by the siren song of the latest and greatest chase toys. So through simple dumb luck and sheer force of numbers the good storms will continue to have more and more people on them.

On the positive side, the new technology has really made the chase process a lot easier and sometimes less stressful- and at this point, for me at least, there is no turning back, as I personally cannot do anything about the problems I outlined above. So I will embrace the new chasing realities and take what comes- the good, the bad and the ugly. The storms themselves are still the most awesome and powerful force in nature- and I never get tired of viewing them. That is the bottom line, and it is why I will always chase.

Matt

What is a meteorologist?

2005-04-20T10:51:00.000-04:00

The recent (now withdrawn) proposed Texas legislation to define a meteorologist got me all riled up again on a subject I feel pretty strongly on- what exactly defines this field I have devoted my life to? The easy answer that a lot of people subscribe to is: BS or higher degree in meteorology= meteorologist. However, it is not nearly so simple, and I am a prime example of that, for you see, despite having the title meteorologist, and having been gainfully employed as a forecaster in that field for almost 30 years, I do not meet the above requirement.

My personal background is necessary to frame where I am coming from:
I have always been a storm nut (hence the title of this blog). I am not sure what the genesis of this was, but I think it is probably related to my childhood being mostly spent in the relative weather dearth of Southern California, where the forecast 80% of the year is the same; night and morning low clouds with hazy afternoon sunshine. However, every summer I was shipped off to see my grandmother in Corning, IA in the SW part of that state- and got to witness the majesty of the Plains thunderstorm firsthand.
So from an early age I did a lot of the things young weather geeks do- I had my homemade rain gauge, kept meticulous weather records etc. I was branded as strange in Corning early on because of my habit of climbing onto the roof of my grandmother's house to observe the clouds. Back in California I spent hours on the phone with my neighbor Walter Milton, another weather geek, talking about what our TV idol, Dr. George Fishbeck, had to say on the local news. Dr George was quite an influence on me- he was not actually a real meteorologist, I believe his degree was in geography or some such. His unbridled enthusiasm for weather, and his penchant for showing things like 500mb charts on the air had me hooked from the start.
In any event, I always knew I wanted to be a meteorologist when I grew up. However, after investigating what this would entail, I was not pleased about all the advanced math and physics required in getting a degree. For you see, from early on I was the kind of student that would try and avoid, at all costs, any subject that I found to be boring- and math and physics fit that category to a tee. Another obstacle was that since I would invariably get bad grades in subjects I did not like (never an F or rarely a D, but many Cs). So my GPA was mediocre at best coming out of high school. Therefore I spent the first two years of school at Santa Monica junior college. Then my grandmother offered to pay my tuition at Iowa State- which had a meteorology program. So back to Iowa I went, but still reluctant to take those darn math and physics classes. I approached the dilemma slowly, first getting all the lesser related classes out of the way- but decision time was fast approaching. But then the Fickle Finger of Fate intervened. From the start of my tenure at ISU, I could see that there was very little emphasis on forecasting (which is what I wanted to do). There was one very math oriented synoptics class, and a half-hearted daily map discussion. However, I was very lucky that Ed Berry, now at NWS DDC, was a grad student at the time, and he and I would be practically the only people in the map room most of the time. I found that I was picking up the rudiments of reading the charts, with Ed's tutelage, very quickly. Before long I was leading the map discussions- and even providing forecasts to some of the professors (who were very research oriented).
At the same two part time jobs opened up in the area- and because of my now almost legendary enthusiasm for forecasting, I landed both at the same time. One was Sunday night at Freese-Notis weather in Des Moines, where I answered the phone and did a few odd forecasts. The other was assistant to Vince Miller at WOI-TV. Both jobs gave me an opportunity to soak up more forecasting knowledge. After a year or so, I was facing the math dilemma square in the face- but was saved by being offered a full-time position at Freese Notis. My thinking was, maybe I could slowly get my degree at ISU while working. However, that never came about, as I spent about 3 years at F-N, then applied to TWC when it launched in 1982, and got that job. I have been working at TWC as a forecaster for 23 years now, the bulk of that time as Senior Forecaster.

OK, what is the upshot of all this? In my personal case, I never took one class in Dynamics, Synoptic, Thermo- and got no college degree of any kind, Despite this handicap I have been gainfully employed as a weather forecaster for coming up on 30 years, and If I may toot my own horn a bit, my employers have been eminently satisfied with my performance as such.

This gets to the heart of the whole controversy- what is required to be a good weather forecaster? The conventional wisdom, ascribed to by the AMS, is that the more math, physics and advanced met classes, the better. However, my experience seems to fly in the face of that.
Here is my admittedly biased take. The proof is in the RESULTS, not the path taken to get there. If someone like myself, with no degree- maybe someone that could not quite pass that last partial differential equations course, or an ex-military type, or whatever- is able to produce good forecast RESULTS, then the other stuff is all secondary. The passion and dedication to the field is a much more important requirement than any degree. Even among the degreed meteorologists, I see this time in and time out- the really good ones are the ones that have that fire in their belly- that is what counts above all else.
After all, how much of that high-level calculus and advanced physics is really applied in day-to-day forecasting? Very little if any. I have heard that blather about "you need to understand the underlying concepts", but I think that I do understand the concepts- I just never had to express that understanding with a calculus equation. Like it or not, forecasting is still at least as much art as science- mainly because the atmosphere is so chaotic and basically unpredictable, all of the equations in the world cannot come close to approximating what actually goes on. I cannot remember how many times over the years I have read a very long-winded NWS forecast discussion filled with a lot of the latest met jargon- q vectors, CSI, potential vorticity etc- and the forecast ends up being dead wrong anyway. I am not saying that a forecaster that uses these methods is doing it wrong per se- just that his/her method is not necessarily going to always work better than a simpler approach.

Now let me get one thing straight here- I am NOT advising any younger people reading this that a degree is not important- in the world we live in now, it is an absolute requirement. What happened with me is very atypical, and is not the path that would probably lead to employment any longer- even back then it was a fluke. I DO advise, however, along with geting that degree, you live and breathe forecasting and try and learn as much as you can on your own, and eventually what you learn by being passionate and dedicated will serve you every bit as much as that degree will.

A pie-in-the-sky theory that might help solve this dilemma is that all meteorologists are not created equal- so why is there only one path to a met degree? it is ludicrous, in my view, to make a future professor or modeler take the exact same courses as someone that simply wants to forecast. In ny perfect world, schools would have something like a BS in Forecasting Science. This degree would require just the basic calc and physics, but have a heavy emphasis on synoptic and tons of hands on forecasting. This would allow many potentially great forecasters to get their degrees, where otherwise the heavier math courses might force them into other professions. (I personally know of at least 2 people that this happened to).
I know that none of this is likely to ever come about, as the AMS and NWS seem to be going in the opposite direction. But I can dream (and blog) can't I?

Matt

Roger Hill strikes again!

2005-04-19T19:36:00.000-04:00

Roger Hill, arguably the most succesful storm chaser of the past 5 years, bagged at least two tornadoes north of Sterling, CO earlier this afternoon- it is not surprising that he and Mike Umscheid have been the golden ones so far this early season (Mike and Fritz Kruse of NWS Dodge City got 5 or so in west central Kansas on April 10th).
Looks like Nebraska will be the place to be the next two days as well (western tomorrow, eastern Thursday)- then maybe some interesting storms here in Atlanta on Friday.

After that a strong low will form over the eastern U.S. for Saturday- this is significant in that all of the models and ensembles show a strong system coming out of the Pacific into the Plains next Monday- but with the close proximity in time to the previous front, it is questionable if the Guf moisture can recover in time for a really significant tornado event. Too bad, since my days off are Sunday Monday and Tuesday- so I could drive out to TX for a Monday event. The silver lining for me is that it looks like there could be some good storms closer to home Tuesday in the Tennessee Valley- we shall see. My main chase vacation does not begin until May 23- so I will take all the early week events before then I can get.

Matt